Happy Turkey Day

 Consider a turkey who is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race "looking out for its best interests" as a politician would say. On the Wednesday before Thanksgiving something unexpected will happen to the turkey. (On the problems of inductive reasoning), The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,(2010), Nassim Nicholas Taleb

In 2020, is WuFlu the Black Swan moment? Or, is the election?

Imagine you're some guy who is a politically engaged resident of a so-called Red State. You walked the soles off of several pairs of shoes, banging on doors. Spent hours on the phone, wore your hands raw pushing in lawn signs. You got your boat out for the parades, fired up the F250 on the weekends for the socially-distanced meets. Your wife made sandwiches, your kids pulled wagons full of pamphlets. Maybe you made the sandwiches and your wife banged on the door. Maybe your husband watched the kids. Whatever it was, you played your part, and cast your ballot.

Around you, something like 65% of your neighbors agreed with you. Upwards of 100% of your neighbors understand that, in a Constitutional Republic, the only way for the people to steer the Ship of State is for the ballot count to be fair. Your candidate wins because they got more votes. They lose because the other person did better. You sleep soundly.

You wake up the next day only to hear that "the other guy" is being dragged across the finish line because individuals in other states aren't nearly as principled as you. There are wild, unexplained swings involving hundreds of thousands of votes - almost all (99%?) in favor of "the other guy." The national press seems eager to play along, and social media blocks any attempt to call bullshit on what may be, or may not be, fraud.

There are real issues at stake in this election, fundamental to how you think America should work. You did your thing in Iraq, helped load a couple of your friends into plastic bags. Got a lot of their blood on you in the process. Maybe you were there when it happened, to hear them plead with God to let them live. And, here you are. Some asshole in some other state tipped the scales with a box of fake ballots and you're left asking yourself if your buddies died for all of this.

There are a very few Americans left who know what an existential threat to America feels like. We think it is our birthright to be fed by friendly politicians who are "looking out for our best interests." Candidate A wins, or Candidate B wins. We're all Americans, right?

If you say so, brother. I just wonder about that guy, his candidate's flags hanging from his porch. At what point does he drop "The Deuce" and start to seriously ask if it's time to cut ties with people who will lie, cheat, steal, murder, burn... Maybe he goes in to work in the morning and just figures "Fuck it, I'm okay."

What if he, and a lot of guys like him, don't? What happens when they get tired of playing the game straight, only to get fucked over without anyone giving a good goddamn? Countries have come and gone through history. Eventually, that guy gets pushed too far.

  That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles, and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.

If you don't know where that paragraph comes from, you don't read enough.

I am advocating nothing. Just a cautionary tale - civilizations rely on one of two things to succeed. Force, or an unshakable belief among most of the citizenry that the system is equitable. You will win some, and lose some. The playing field is level, at least as level as humanly possible. In the absence of equity, the question becomes how much force leaders are willing to exert to stay in power. If you're interested, I wrote an excellent book about just how awful governmental violence looks, close up.

Happy Thanksgiving.